After Alan Cobb’s decision last week to not run for U.S. Senate, many viewed it as having a heavy bearing on whether or not Mike Pompeo will himself run for Senate. After all, Cobb has worked for and with Pompeo in the past, they are friendly, and Cobb had made it clear that he would not run for Senate if Pompeo was running.
So many looked at Cobb’s decision as a clear-er indication that Pompeo plans to run.
However, after discussions with people on Team Cobb — and a review of Cobb’s actual statement — a view that Cobb’s decision immediately portends a Pompeo campaign is not as convincing.
While Cobb’s decision sent politico Twitters chirping across the country, others initially viewed it more matter-of-factly: Cobb must have looked at polling done on the race and realized that he couldn’t win.
But this view doesn’t really get to the heart of the matter.
True, any poll looked at — and Cobb specifically said he did not do any polling — would show that Cobb is polling very low, maybe even at zero. He would need to improve his name-ID — which would inevitably have happened once a campaign began. So of course any polling would show that he has a lot of work to do to get his numbers up around a sitting Congressman, the party’s Gubernatorial nominee, or even the President of the State Senate.
But as President and CEO of the Kansas Chamber of Commerce, he wouldn’t have been starting from a base of zero. And it was relatively clear that he would likely have had backing from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (not a common endorsement) as well as the Club for Growth and Americans for Prosperity (both potentially). He is a known quick organizer and fundraiser, and he would have immediately been figured as a formidable candidate in a Pompeo-less primary.
But Cobb is also a realist, and he had to consider what all the implications of a hard-fought campaign would be:
- it would be a challenge to win,
- it would mean backing out of a job he loves, and
- it could mean dropping it all if Mike Pompeo does indeed get in the race — even as late as next spring.
So basically, one has to assess the risk of NOT being a U.S. Senator, especially while currently in a high-profile gig. Cobb really likes heading up the Kansas Chamber, and feels that he has the ability to accomplish significant goals in the position. Some could even argue that he could accomplish MORE for Kansas as head of the Chamber than he could as a U.S. Senator.
Cobb looked at those factors and considered that the risk of a possible unsuccessful campaign — or completely dropping out in favor of his friend — outweighed the potential upsides. It is a difficult decision, but one that anyone with an important job would have to consider.
Now as far as Pompeo goes, while some thought he could make a decision as soon as November, that becomes less likely, based on current events. He is in the thick of things with his regular job — Syria, China, you name it. And then there is the impeachment imbroglio. Few think that he could just pick up sticks without that following him around a bit — whatever your view on all of it.
So again, Pompeo could wait until even mid to late spring, and still get in. And all the other candidates will have to decide what to do at that time.
In the meantime, Alan Cobb has the ability to forge ahead in his job where he can help businesses and Kansans on a daily basis. There are few other jobs where one can do that.
Except maybe…Governor.
Which will be up in just a few years.
Hmm…
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