[*A few hours after this was originally posted, Alan Cobb announced he would NOT run for U.S. Senate.
Could Be Big was told by one Kansas political consultant that it is his understanding Cobb did not see a path to victory after polling. The consultant does not think it’s a reflection on any decision by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
However, Cobb responded to this directly, and stated that he has not done any polling, and that the reasons for his decision are spelled out in his release, which can be found here.]
***
The KCStar editorial today argues that U.S. Senate candidate Kris Kobach is being something of a one-trick pony in his never ending guerrilla war against illegal immigration in all of its shapes and forms.
And while this is somewhat true, ask Average Voter their recalled image of Kobach during the Governor’s race: the big gun on the jeep in the parades.
Of course neither of those issues — Illegal Immigration or First Amendment Rights — got him to Cedar Crest. But, he is convinced that it will work this time. So earned media events, like the one in Roeland Park, will continue.
And like it or not, his name I.D. will keep steady and give him the best chance to win the Republican nomination.
In the meantime, other top candidates in the Senate race — Rep. Roger Marshall and State Senator Susan Wagle, maybe eventually Alan Cobb* — are content to be the Not-Kobach candidates.This will likely be a decent strategy, up to a point.
But at some point, voters will have to find some discernment between the candidates. So far, are there any who don’t want:
- To support the President
- To defeat impeachment
- To fight for lower taxes
- To put Kansans first
- To help further traditional values…
They are all on that boat, right?
And you could add “against illegal immigration” — but arguably Kobach has cornered the market on that.
So currently, Marshall and Wagle and Cobb and Lindstrom and Pruitt are mainly pushing the “I can win” plan — meaning Kobach is underwater against Generic Democrat. Which may or may not be true — but there is a decent argument that he’d lose to a Kathleen Sebelius, while the others wouldn’t.
But again, does “electability” — argued by four candidates — defeat a Kobach plurality in the Primary? Don’t voters need a reason to vote FOR someone?
They do.
Hey, it’s definitely early. No doubt about that.
But keep an eye out for those issues that could cause just a LEETLE breakout from one candidate or another. And then watch to see who grabs that issue to bust through.
(Of course this is all moot, should Mike Pompeo run…)
***
Oh and one other thing:
We are likely to see a barrage of 3rd party attack ads in this race. And we will see what issues they decide to bring out.
The Club for Growth has already said they are going to try to hammer Rep. Roger Marshall for not being conservative enough on their scale.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has said they will do their best to keep Kris Kobach from the nomination.
Americans for Prosperity haven’t come out against anyone, but Alan Cobb used to head that group in Kansas, and they could be likely backers for him, or attackers against another.
The Pompeo Sweepstakes will of course determine whether these groups start defining the various candidates.
But don’t expect them to keep their powder dry for too long.
***
And on that same theme, the 3rd Congressional District Republican Primary will likely have similar issues, or non-issues:
Electability and “Real Conservatism”, among others.
This race is currently a crapshoot, as near as we can tell.
But political consultants are saying that fundraising for both Sara Hart Weir and Amanda Adkins are currently on-pace for what an effective campaign needs.
Both are serious candidates, and will make for a healthy GOP primary.
***
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