The “recent” poll by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and leaked to the WSJ shows that Democrat Barry Grissom beats Republican Kris Kobach in a General Election match by 10 points.
Keep in mind this poll was done in June 2019, two months before the August, Kansas City Star announced that “Kansas Democrat Barry Grissom’s Senate campaign doomed by tenure as U.S. attorney.”
But the point here is still the same.
Nobody knows who the hell Barry Grissom is.
They do know Kobach. And the rest of his numbers, from the NRSC, aren’t good:
32% favorable to 50% unfavorable, with 39% strongly unfavorable. And they note Kobach is 24 points lower than President Donald Trump…with Independents!
They’re saying that a ham sandwich could beat Kobach in the general election.
Kobach’s pushback, sort of, is that these numbers are early, from before he even announced. But as others have pointed out, the Favorable / Unfavorable numbers are essentially the same that he had while running for Governor.
So…what has changed? Or, why has anything changed?
Kobachians argue, the office of Senator — where you may just be ensuring a GOP majority — is different from Governor. And Kansans wouldn’t let a Dem in.
But are voters guaranteed to see it that way? Is that a lock?
It is an interesting current primary set up, where certain conservative forces (i.e. the Club for Growth) are ready to hammer Rep. Roger Marshall. And the National Republican Senatorial Committee is gunning for the ABK (“Anyone but Kobach”) position.
Does this give…State Sen. Susan Wagle room to slip through in the split?
Stranger things have happened. In Nebraska in 2012, the far right conservative firebrand Attorney General and the straight line State Treasurer fought it out for the U.S. Senate seat. But then a relatively unknown female state Senator — now U.S. Senator Deb Fischer — shot through the middle, with the help of a late Sarah Palin endorsement.
There is still a lot of time for some crazy politics in Kansas.
Of course, it’s all moot if Mike Pompeo jumps in…
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